Angolan oil production rises for a third straight month

Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 102.81 per barrel in April, up 3.4% from March. On 30 April, the commodity traded at USD 114.15 per barrel, down 3.5% from 31 March. Turning to production, Angolan oil output ticked up to 1.03 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April from March’s 1.02 mbpd; still, production undershot both the 1.07 mbpd expected by national oil firm ANPG and the 2016–2025 average of 1.31 mbpd.

Outlook: Our panelists expect Angola's crude output to rise gradually through 2029, supported by a wave of new project start-ups and a regulatory overhaul that has drawn major international players back to the sector. TotalEnergies, Azule Energy and Shell are among those adding new capacity, while the nation’s second oil refinery that came onstream in Cabinda in May will add momentum downstream. That said, structural headwinds persist. Ageing fields and high maintenance costs will continue to drag on output, and project delays remain a recurring risk. Falling oil export revenues also highlight Angola's vulnerability to price swings, though higher global prices due to Iran war should boost incentives to drive up production.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 5 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

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