Angolan oil production decreases in November

Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 61.77 per barrel in December, down 3.0% from November. On 31 December, the commodity traded at USD 60.85 per barrel, down 3.8% from 28 November. Seasonal factors will have been in part the cause, with cooler weather in the Northern Hemisphere reducing air and road travel. On a year-on-year basis, higher OPEC+ quotas exerted downward pressure on prices. On the production front, Angolan oil output ticked down to 1.06 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November from 1.07 mbpd in October, marking the first decrease in four months. In addition, production undershot the 1.10 mbpd expected by the national oil firm ANPG. The reading remained well below the 2015–2024 average of 1.39 mbpd.

Outlook: Our panelists expect crude production to rise this year from last and continue to gain momentum through 2029. Still, production is set to remain below its 2015–2024 average throughout our forecast horizon. The overhaul of Angola’s regulatory framework has helped to unlock substantial investments from international oil majors. In the short term, new production from TotalEnergies and the recent launch of Azule Energy’s Agogo IWH project, the joint venture between BP and Eni, will support output. Looking further ahead, Shell has committed USD 1 billion to seismic studies and drilling, supplementing ongoing exploration activity. That said, aging oil fields and frequent maintenance at major wells will continue constrain production. Delays to key projects pose downside risks.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 5 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

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