Angolan oil production hits eleven-month high in October

Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 63.69 per barrel in November, down 0.5% from October. On 28 November, the commodity traded at USD 63.24 per barrel, down 2.9% from 31 October. Seasonal factors will have been in part the cause, with cooler weather in the Northern Hemisphere reducing air and road travel. On a year-on-year basis, higher OPEC+ quotas exerted downward pressure on prices. On the production front, Angolan oil output ticked up to 1.07 million barrels per day (mbpd) in October from 1.06 mbpd in September, marking a third consecutive increase and the highest level since November 2024. In addition, production overshot the 1.06 mbpd expected by the national oil firm ANPG for the first time since December 2024. That said, the reading remained well below the 2015–2024 average of 1.39 mbpd.

Outlook: Our panel expects crude production to pick up in 2026 from 2025 and continue gaining momentum through 2029, gradually edging closer to its 2015–2024 average. The overhaul of Angola’s regulatory framework has helped unlock substantial new investments from international oil majors. In the short term, output will be supported by new production from TotalEnergies and the recent launch of Azule Energy’s Agogo IWH project, the joint venture between BP and Eni. Looking further ahead, Shell has committed USD 1 billion to seismic studies and drilling, supplementing ongoing exploration activity. Nonetheless, structural constraints such as aging oil fields and frequent maintenance at major wells will continue to weigh on production. Delays to key projects continue to pose downside risks.

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