Inflation eases in March from February

Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in March, following a 4.7% increase in the previous month. As such, inflation remained within the Central Bank’s 3.0–5.0% target range. Relative to the previous month's figures, there were reduced price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+6.9% on a year-on-year basis vs +7.2% in February) and recreation and culture (+1.7% vs +2.0% in February). In contrast, price pressures were higher for transport in March (+3.1% vs +2.8% in February). Finally, the change in housing and utilities prices was the same as in the prior month (+2.6% in March and February). Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 4.6% in annual terms in March, following a 4.8% rise in the previous month. Lastly, consumer prices were up 0.27% in March on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.03% increase in the prior month.

Outlook: EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “Given the outbreak of war with Iran in early March, we forecast that high oil prices will lift Dominican inflation to above the 5% upper target bound by mid-2026. The Dominican Republic is susceptible to imported inflation from prices of energy and foodstuffs. Our central view is that the conflict in the Middle East will last until late April or early May, reflecting both the current intensity of operations and the political incentives on all sides to demonstrate resolve before shifting towards de-escalation.”

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