Inflation decelerates in January from December

Latest reading: Consumer prices increased 11.9% in annual terms in January, following a 12.3% rise in the prior month while still above market expectations. This decline was driven mainly by annual non-food inflation dropping to 18.6%, its lowest rate since October 2023. Relative to the prior month's data, price pressures reduced for transportation in January (+27.4% on a year-on-year basis vs +28.4% in December). In contrast, there were higher price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages—the largest component in the consumer price index basket (+1.9% vs +1.5% in December)— aand housing and utilities (+29.7% vs +29.2% in December). Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 11.2% in annual terms in January, following a 11.8% rise in the prior month. Finally, consumer prices increased 1.17% in January on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.19% increase in the previous month.

Panelist insight: EIU analysts saysaid: “Inflation is on a general downward trend, although a short-lived bump that began from October 2025 will last into 2026, owing to rises in fuel prices. It is unlikely that the rate will fall within the central bank's target of 7% ±2 percentage points until mid-2026, because of regulated price increases and because killing off services inflation would require a tighter monetary stance than we expect.”

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