Inflation decelerates in May from the prior month

Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 14.6% in annual terms in May, following a 14.9% rise in the prior month. Relative to the prior month's data, price pressures reduced for transportation in May (+24.7% in annual terms vs +29.2% in April). In contrast, there were higher price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages—the largest component in the consumer price index basket (+7.6% vs +6.7% in April)—and housing and utilities (+40.4% vs +38.5% in April). Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 13.8% on a year-on-year basis in May, unchanged from the prior month's reading. Lastly, consumer prices rose 1.64% in May in month-on-month terms, following a 1.09% increase in the prior month.

Panelist insight: On the inflation outlook and its impact on monetary policy, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “We think the decline in annual inflation in May is likely to be temporary, and continue to forecast a pick-up in the coming months. Our updated inflation forecast–which sees inflation peaking at ~17.5% in August–is broadly in line with the CBE's projections. We think that this unfavourable inflation outlook points to a likely 200bp of rate hikes in Q3 this year in order to maintain a positive real rate buffer, bringing the policy rate to 21% (the next MPC is scheduled for July 9).”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Egyptian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Egyptian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Egyptian inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Egyptian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.