Industrial output unexpectedly shrinks in March

Latest reading: Industrial production was down 0.7% in calendar-adjusted month-on-month terms in March, following a 0.5% decline in the previous month and defying market estimates of an increase. Relative to the previous month's data, readings in March softened for manufacturing (-0.8% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms vs -0.3% in February), mining and quarrying (-0.9% vs +6.9% in February) and energy (-4.0% vs +2.3% in February). In contrast, the reading for construction improved in March (+1.9% vs -2.1% in February). In calendar-adjusted year-on-year terms, industrial production was down 2.8% in March, following a 0.2% fall in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, ING’s Carsten Brzeski stated: “All in all, this morning's industrial production data suggests that the stuttering of one of Germany's most important growth engines worsened with the start of the war in the Middle East. Given that energy prices continued to soar in April and risks of supply chain disruptions increased, any near-term improvement in industrial production looks very unlikely.”

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