Bank of Ghana holds in July

BOG remains cautious, with no surprise this time: At its meeting on 20–22 July, the Bank of Ghana (BOG) unanimously decided to maintain its policy rate at 14.00%. The decision marked a second consecutive hold after an easing spree over the preceding five meetings. Unlike in May, however, this time the BOG’s caution did not surprise markets.

Renewed hostilities in the Middle East and uptick in inflation drive BOG’s caution: The reescalation of the Middle East conflict earlier this month has pushed up energy prices again, prompting the BOG to remain on pause, mirroring the decisions of other central banks like Nigeria’s. An uptick in domestic inflation in June also argued against a rate cut, as did the threat of hikes to utility tariffs. Equally, the BOG deemed a rate hike unnecessary as inflation has stayed below the lower bound of its 6.0–10.0% target despite rising, inflation expectations remained anchored and economic activity accelerated in May. Continued fiscal consolidation plus a softer depreciation of the cedi amid a strong trade surplus and adequate reserve buffers should help offset the upside external price pressures in the BOG’s view.

Rates likely to remain unchanged through year-end: The Central Bank did not provide specific forward guidance regarding future changes to interest rates. Most of our panelists expect the Bank to stand pat through the end of this year, while the rest are split between hikes and cuts. The BOG will reconvene on 22–24 September.

Panelist insight: Leeuwner Esterhuysen from Oxford Economics commented on why they expect hikes later this year: “We think [inflation] will start climbing more notably in Q3, which may prompt policy tightening by the [Central Bank] at its September and November meetings.” Meanwhile, EIU analysts pencil in a hold: “Having front-loaded rate cuts in 2026 as a result of a sharp disinflationary trend, we now expect that the central bank will maintain the status quo on its monetary policy. […] Our core view remains that inflation will remain in single digits in 2026, despite upward imported inflationary pressures (from higher prices of fuel, fertiliser and food), enabling the central bank to avoid raising interest rates.” 

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ghanaian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Ghanaian interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ghanaian interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Ghanaian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.