Economic growth accelerates in the fourth quarter of 2025

GDP expands at the fastest pace in four years: According to a final release, Guatemala's GDP expanded an upwardly revised 4.8% in annual terms in Q4, following 4.5% growth in the previous quarter. Q4's reading was the strongest since Q4 2021. Overall in 2025, GDP growth accelerated to 4.3%, the highest in four years, following 3.7% growth in 2024.

Net exports drive economic growth: Relative to the prior period's data, the reading for exports of goods and services improved in Q4 (+5.5% in annual terms vs -2.8% in Q3). In contrast, readings worsened for private consumption (+4.6% vs +5.4% in Q3), government consumption (+6.5% vs +9.3% in Q3), fixed investment (+10.6% vs +11.8% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+6.8% vs +9.8% in Q3). On the production side, the primary sector posted its strongest growth in several years, mainly driven by an increase in silviculture activity, which was boosted by payments received from the World Bank for carbon credits under the Emission Reduction Program. Moreover, agricultural activity was aided by favorable climate conditions and higher demand.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, EIU analysts said: “Guatemala’s GDP grew strongly by 4.3% in 2025, but we expect this pace to slow to 3.4% in 2026, owing partly to base-year effects but also to weakened private consumption as a result of higher domestic fuel prices and an expected reduction in remittances inflows [...]. There are high risks to our forecast stemming from the rise in global oil prices as a result of the Iran war, as higher-than-expected prices for longer will weigh heavily on economic growth, owing to the impact on real incomes. […] On the positive side, the economy has to date been resilient to risks stemming from the US’s tighter trade and migration policies.”

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