Merchandise trade surplus narrows in February

Latest reading: In February, the trade balance was USD +1.7 billion, following a USD +2.3 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +45.9 billion. This was the smallest surplus since April 2025. Merchandise exports increased 0.4% in annual terms in February, coming on the back of 3.8% growth in the previous month. Merchandise imports were up 13.9% in annual terms in February, following 13.6% growth in the prior month. February's reading was the strongest since April 2025.

Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen commented on the outlook: “Looking ahead, Indonesia’s external position remains solid but given heightened risks from the rising geopolitical tensions, trade surplus may narrow. The downstreaming strategy has delivered tangible results, particularly in nickel, and should be extended to other commodities such as iron & steel, coal, and refined fuels. […] Regional and global trade partnerships, including ASEAN cooperation and reciprocal tariff arrangements, will be critical to sustaining momentum.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Indonesian merchandise imports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable merchandise imports forecast available for Indonesian merchandise imports.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Indonesian merchandise imports projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Indonesian merchandise imports forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.