Merchandise trade surplus narrows in February

Latest reading: In February, the trade balance was USD +1.7 billion, following a USD +2.3 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +45.9 billion. This was the smallest surplus since April 2025. Merchandise exports increased 0.4% in annual terms in February, coming on the back of 3.8% growth in the previous month. Merchandise imports were up 13.9% in annual terms in February, following 13.6% growth in the prior month. February's reading was the strongest since April 2025.

Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen commented on the outlook: “Looking ahead, Indonesia’s external position remains solid but given heightened risks from the rising geopolitical tensions, trade surplus may narrow. The downstreaming strategy has delivered tangible results, particularly in nickel, and should be extended to other commodities such as iron & steel, coal, and refined fuels. […] Regional and global trade partnerships, including ASEAN cooperation and reciprocal tariff arrangements, will be critical to sustaining momentum.”

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