National Bank of Kazakhstan leaves rates unchanged in April

Rates remain at record-high: At its meeting on 24 April, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) kept its base rate at 18.00%—a record-high for the country and currently the highest among CIS plus countries—for a fourth consecutive meeting. The decision was in line with market expectations and prior guidance from the NBK that it would consider rate cuts only from H2.

Looming price pressures prevent a cut: Despite a slowdown in inflation to 11.0% in March 2026 from 11.7% in February, the NBK remained cautious, as inflation is still well above the 5.0% target, and inflation expectations rose to 14.6% in March (February: 13.7%). Moreover, the end of the moratorium on utility and fuel prices from 1 April is expected to have triggered a rise in prices, as is the conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, disinflationary drivers such as cooling consumer credit growth and a stronger tenge reinforced the Bank’s view that a hike was unnecessary.

NBK’s guidance becomes more dovish: The NBK’s guidance was more dovish than at its previous meeting. This time, it indicated that if current trends persist and no new shocks occur, it may consider reducing the base rate, meaning easing is possible as early as the next meeting on 5 June. Most of our panelists expect monetary easing to begin in Q3, with 50–350 basis points of cuts anticipated by year-end; the Consensus is for nearly 200 basis points of cuts.

Panelist insight: Dmitry Dolgin, Chief Economist of the CIS region at ING, commented on the outlook: “In our view, despite a slightly more dovish tone, the substance of the NBK's commentary still points to a high bar for easing in the near-term. We interpret today's signal as reverting to the message we saw earlier in the year: easing is possible, but only if domestic tariff hikes are modest, fiscal and quasi-fiscal stimulus remains in check, and external shocks are avoided. We therefore continue to see the first cut as a third-quarter story this year (with September more likely than July), when more clarity emerges on the tariff and fiscal stories, and when CPI growth has a chance of returning to the single-digit threshold.”

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