GDP growth rises in January–December vs January–September

GDP expansion again one of fastest in over a decade: According to preliminary estimates, Kazakhstan’s GDP expanded by 6.5% year on year in January–December, above January–September’s 6.3% rise and marking the fastest growth rate since 2011.

A broad-based improvement in economic activity: Compared with January–September, readings in January–December improved for the agricultural sector (+5.9% year on year vs +4.4% in January–September), the construction sector (+15.9% vs +14.9% in January–September) and the industrial sector (+7.4% vs +7.3 in January–September). In contrast, the reading weakened slightly for the services sector (+5.2% vs +5.3% in January–September).

Panelist insight: EIU analysts said: “The principal growth drivers this year are increased oil production, fiscal stimulus, strong credit growth and expanded public investment spending. […] We expect domestic-demand-led growth to remain robust, but the strong inflationary dynamic in the economy presents a growing risk to stability. The modest slowdown in GDP growth in 2026 will reflect lower oil prices, slower oil production growth, reduced fiscal transfers and weaker household income dynamics amid elevated inflation and tighter credit rules. Volatile global geopolitics, increased trade protectionism and softer oil prices are constraining export performance, albeit still partly offset by off-balance-sheet re-exporting of goods subject to sanctions to Russia.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Kazakhstani investment projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable investment forecast available for Kazakhstani investment.

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