Merchandise trade returns to a surplus in March

Latest reading: In March, the trade balance was USD +5.9 billion, following a USD -0.5 billion figure in the previous month. This was the largest surplus since December 2020. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD 0.0 billion. Merchandise exports increased 27.7% in annual terms in March, coming on the back of 15.8% growth in the prior month. March's reading was the strongest since February 2022, driven by higher mining and non-vehicle manufactured exports. In contrast, vehicle exports grew only mildly, and oil exports tumbled amid the government’s policy of prioritizing domestic refining. Merchandise imports rose 24.3% in year-on-year terms in March, following 20.8% growth in the previous month. March's reading was the strongest since August 2022.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 19 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Mexican trade.

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