Economic growth accelerates in Q4 2025

Economy ends 2025 on a high note: Poland's GDP expanded 4.0% in annual terms in Q4, following 3.8% growth in the prior quarter. Q4's reading was the strongest since Q3 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP expanded 1.0% in Q4, following a 0.9% expansion in the previous quarter. In 2025 as a whole, GDP grew 3.6% (2024: +3.0%), reaching its fastest growth rate in three years.

Domestic demand fuels faster GDP growth in Q4: Compared to the previous quarter's data, figures in Q4 improved for private consumption (+4.2% on a year-on-year basis vs +3.5% in Q3), exports of goods and services (+7.7% vs +6.1% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+8.7% vs +5.9% in Q3). In contrast, readings softened for government consumption (+7.3% vs +7.4% in Q3) and fixed investment (+4.7% vs +7.1% in Q3).

Panelist insight: ING’s Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak commented: “We estimate that GDP growth eased at the beginning of this year, and in 1Q26 we expect growth in the range of 3.6-3.8% YoY. Contributing factors include adverse weather conditions at the beginning of the quarter (particularly reflected in construction activity but also seen in industry) and growing uncertainty about the conflict in Iran. A potential rise in crude oil prices–if significant and sustained–may not only push inflation slightly higher but could also constrain economic growth. The ongoing war in Ukraine undermines private businesses' propensity to invest, and the conflict in Iran could impact this too. So the overall negative impact of geopolitical risks for domestic growth and private investment may turn out to be more severe than previously projected.”

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