Russia Exports yo

Economy rebounds in Q2 2026

GDP rebound stronger than expected: According to a flash estimate, Russia's GDP grew 1.3% on a year-on-year basis in Q2, rebounding from a 0.2% contraction in Q1. The reading was above the forecasts of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development, as well as market expectations, and marked the joint-highest result since Q4 2024.

Stronger consumer spending, lower interest rates likely underpinned recovery: Retail sales growth roughly doubling from Q1 and sustained positive disposable income growth suggest more upbeat consumer spending growth than in Q1. Public spending growth likely remained stable, as federal budget expenses were broadly similar to Q1. Meanwhile, lower interest rates may have aided fixed investment, which fell at the sharpest rate in over a decade in Q1, driving the GDP contraction.

Attacks on refineries and warehouses threaten growth: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to moderate in Q3 from Q2’s sharp rebound. That said, downside risks are substantial. From late June through late August, Ukraine executed its most damaging drone campaign since the war began, hitting several major refineries, with the furthest located around 2,500 kilometers from Ukrainian territory. As a result, fuel shortages were reported nationwide. The government has now also banned exports of diesel in addition to already banned gasoline exports. These bans are due to expire on 1 September 2026 and 31 January 2027, respectively. Moreover, since mid-July, Ukrainian drones have hit warehouses operated by retail giant Wildberries—a cornerstone of the consumer economy—in at least 21 cities.

Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented on the outlook: “We now forecast that real GDP growth will reach 0.7% in 2026 […]. The economy shrank more than we expected in the first quarter, but the rebound in the second quarter has been much stronger than we initially forecast. The outlook remains highly dependent on oil and gas prices in the second half of the year, the trajectory of government spending and the continuing ability of Ukraine to successfully strike Russian infrastructure.” Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs’ Clemens Grafe commented on the impact of attacks on the refineries: “But the attacks on the refineries do have the potential to disrupt the Russian economy more meaningfully [than attacks on warehouses of online retailers]. […] the direct impact is likely once again not that large. However, part of the refining output plays a major role in many industries, and so the indirect impact through supply lines can potentially be much larger. That said, Russia typically exports close to 45% of its refined products, meaning that refinery outages need to be substantial for the forward linkages to matter.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable exports forecast available for Russian exports.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian exports projections.

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