Economic growth is stable in the third quarter of 2025

GDP growth remains subdued: Serbia's GDP increased 2.0% on a year-on-year basis in Q3, stable from the previous quarter's downwardly revised reading and well below its post-pandemic average. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP grew 0.6% in Q3, following 1.2% growth in the prior quarter.

Domestic demand drives economic growth: Compared with the prior quarter's data, readings in Q3 improved for private consumption (+3.4% in annual terms vs +3.1% in Q2), government consumption (+3.9% vs +3.8% in Q2) and fixed investment (-2.1% vs -3.9% in Q2). In contrast, readings worsened for exports of goods and services (+4.2% vs +5.6% in Q2) and imports of goods and services (+5.2% vs +9.7% in Q2).

NIS sanctions cloud the outlook: Our panelists expect year-on-year economic growth to remain broadly stable in Q4. However, U.S. sanctions on Russia-majority-owned oil firm NIS have led to a halt in production at the country’s sole refinery, increasing pressures on fuel supply and weighing on overall economic activity. In 2026, GDP growth is expected to accelerate and approach its post-pandemic average. Infrastructure spending linked to Expo 2027 Belgrade—the largest international event in Serbian history—and a recovery in foreign direct investment should boost fixed investment. Still, a prolonged refinery shutdown plus persistent anti-corruption protests are key downside risks.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Serbian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.