Economic growth accelerates moderately in the fourth quarter

GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth accelerated to 3.3% year on year in the fourth quarter from 3.1% in the third quarter. Q4’s estimate brings 2024 GDP growth to 3.8%, matching 2023’s figure and coming in above the preceding 10-year average of 2.8%.

Drivers: The statistical office did not provide a detailed breakdown, but monthly data suggests that the industrial sector was a key engine of growth: Factory output growth improved from Q3. Less positively, retail sales rose at a slower clip, suggesting that private spending lost some traction. A comprehensive breakdown is scheduled to be published on 28 February.

Panelist insight: Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, said: “Risks to growth forecasts have recently shifted slightly to the downside. Latest GDP releases for the EA countries confirmed underlying weakness continued in core countries at the end of 2024, while on the domestic side we can observe a slowdown in retail activity. Sentiment is also weakened by the threat of global tariff war. Meanwhile, ongoing protests in Serbia which resulted with a resignation from the PM could cause a delay in the implementation of planned Expo projects and thus weaken the expected 2025 GDP figure.”

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