GDP reading: GDP growth ticked up to 3.1% year on year in the second quarter from 3.0% in the first...
Economic Growth in Serbia
Serbia's economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.9% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 2.8% average for South-Eastern Europe. In 2024, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Serbia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Serbia GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 55.9 | 66.1 | 66.8 | 81.3 | 89.0 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 49.0 | 55.9 | 63.5 | 75.2 | 82.3 |
| GDP (RSD bn) | 5,764 | 6,576 | 7,459 | 8,818 | 9,639 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.7 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 18.2 | 9.3 |
GDP growth steadies in the second quarter
GDP growth disappoints markets: According to a preliminary reading, annual GDP growth was stable at Q1’s 2.0% in Q2, marking the joint-weakest expansion since Q4 2022, but remaining above the 2010–2019 pre-pandemic average. The reading came in below market expectations.
Drivers: The release did not include a detailed breakdown, but monthly data suggests that the external sector remained a drag on growth as the trade deficit persisted. Meanwhile, both retail trade and industrial output grew at sharper rates in Q2 vs Q1, suggesting that underlying domestic demand was upbeat. Inventories may have had a negative impact on Q2 GDP growth. A comprehensive breakdown is set to be published on 1 September.
Panelist insight: Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, commented: “For now, we keep our FY25 GDP [growth] forecast unchanged at 3.1% y/y as we still expect a pickup in activity in 2H25, supported also by base effects, although risks are now clearly tilted to the downside.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 26 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Serbian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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