Economic growth remains soft in Q4

GDP growth improves slightly from Q3: A second release confirmed that Slovakia's GDP grew 1.0% on a year-on-year basis in Q4, following a 0.9% expansion in the prior quarter. Q4's reading was last year’s strongest but remained soft, trailing the euro area average for the fourth consecutive quarter. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, economic output increased 0.3% in Q4, upwardly revised from the initial estimate of 0.2% and stable from the previous quarter's reading. In 2025 as a whole, GDP grew 0.8%, more than halving from a 1.9% rise in 2024 and hitting a three-year low.

EU funds support GDP growth: Relative to the prior quarter's data, figures in Q4 improved for fixed investment (+6.1% in annual terms vs +4.5% in Q3), exports of goods and services (+3.6% vs +1.3% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+2.7% vs +0.2% in Q3). In contrast, readings softened for private consumption (-1.2% vs +0.4% in Q3) and government consumption (+0.3% vs +1.6% in Q3). Fixed investment growth was the main driver of the mild acceleration of the economy, as EU Recovery Plan funds started to have a greater effect on the economy, especially given the approaching deadline for using these funds, which are available until the end of August 2026. In contrast, private spending dragged on GDP growth, contracting for the first time in nearly two years, as households likely started to save a higher share of their income in the face of increased economic uncertainty and souring consumer sentiment. Finally, government spending rose at the softest pace in two years, as fiscal consolidation weighed on the public sector.

GDP outlook: Our Consensus is for Q1 2026 annual economic growth to remain close to Q4’s rate, supported by EU fund inflows. Overall GDP growth in 2026 is set to outpace 2025, aided by robust fixed investment growth and accelerating private consumption. However, intensifying global trade tensions and fiscal tightening are expected to dampen exports and public spending growth, respectively, keeping the overall economic expansion rate below the past 10-year average. The impact of the Middle Eastern conflict on inflation and economic activity in Germany are key to monitor.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Matej Hornak, analyst at Erste Bank, stated: “One of the key determinants of future economic performance will be the activity of our foreign trading partners,particularly Germany. Although recent months had brought positive signals from the euro area economy, the recent escalation in the Middle East has introduced a new wave of uncertainty into forecasts. Depending on the duration and intensity of the conflict, flows of goods and energy commodities may be affected, which could trigger another wave of inflation. Current elevated gas and oil prices—posing the most significant risks for the Slovak economy—could push domestic inflation higher by roughly half a percentage point already this year.”

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