Economic growth ebbs in the first quarter of 2026

GDP growth remains subdued: Slovakia's GDP increased 0.9% in annual terms in Q1, following 1.0% growth in the prior quarter and undershooting the post-pandemic average. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic output grew 0.2% in Q1, following 0.2% growth in the previous quarter.

Rebounding private spending is not enough: Compared to the prior period's data, readings in Q1 softened for government consumption (-0.4% on a year-on-year basis vs +0.3% in Q4), fixed investment (-6.4% vs +6.1% in Q4), exports of goods and services (-0.1% vs +3.6% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (-1.3% vs +2.7% in Q4). In contrast, the reading for private consumption improved in Q1 (+1.1% vs -1.2% in Q4). Fixed investment took a sharp hit in the first quarter, tumbling at its fastest pace in a year as weak business sentiment and stubbornly high inflation sapped corporate confidence. Government spending also weighed on GDP growth, reflecting fiscal consolidation. Yet not all was bleak: Consumer spending offered a silver lining, rebounding from the prior quarter, likely fueled by faster wage growth.

GDP growth to remain downbeat: Looking at Q2, GDP growth is expected to remain close to Q1’s rate and well below the past decade's average. Higher energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East are likely taking a toll on households’ spending, boding ill for the growth engine that aided the economy in Q1. Additional headwinds stem from fiscal consolidation efforts.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Maximilian Weber, analyst at Erste Bank, stated: “Being a small open economy, Slovakia will continue to feel the weight of geopolitical tensions, prevailing uncertainty, and ongoing trade wars. The principal external determinants will be the trajectory of energy prices, the condition of foreign demand, and the degree of trade uncertainty. On the domestic front, the ongoing fiscal consolidation continues to weigh upon growth. The discourse surrounding pro-growth measures intended to bolster economic expansion has thus far yielded only proposals with limited expected reach. More structural reforms are expected to be unveiled in autumn alongside the budget proposal, implying little effect outside the medium to long run and limited short term effects.”

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