Exports continue to boom in November

Latest reading: In November, the trade balance was USD +16.1 billion, following a USD +22.6 billion reading in the prior month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +144.0 billion. Exports increased 56.0% in annual terms in November, following a 49.7% rise in the prior month and well above market expectations. November's reading was the strongest since May 2010, and was linked to burgeoning global demand for AI applications. Looking at key trading partners, sales to the U.S. boomed by nearly 200%, while those to other regions showed more modest but still-strong growth. The increasing recent disconnect between export and industrial production—the latter is rising several times more slowly than exports—suggests Taiwan may be benefiting from some goods being re-routed to the country to minimize tariff exposure. Imports were up 45.0% in year-on-year terms in November, coming on the back of 14.6% growth in the prior month. November's reading was the strongest since February 2025.

Panelist insight: Digging deeper into the data, Nomura analysts said: “The divergence between strong tech and sluggish non-tech export growth has persisted. By sector, tech export growth climbed to 83.8% y-o-y from 73.1%, led by automatic data processing machines (a proxy for AI server demand) and high-end chips. By contrast, non-tech export growth remained subdued at 1.4% y-o-y, with exports of base metals, chemicals, plastic & rubber still in negative growth territory as these sectors continue to grapple with the impact of tariffs and overcapacity issues.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Taiwanese trade projections for the next ten years from a panel of 5 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable trade forecast available for Taiwanese trade.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Taiwanese trade projections.

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