Merchandise trade surplus widens in March

Latest reading: In March, the trade balance was USD +21.3 billion, following a USD +12.8 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +185.8 billion. Merchandise exports increased 61.8% in year-on-year terms in March, following 20.6% growth in the prior month and nearly double market expectations. Exports rose by double digits to all key trading partners, with sales to the U.S. increasing the most. As in past months, higher sales of IT products—linked to the boom in global AI demand—drove exports. Merchandise imports rose 38.3% in year-on-year terms in March, following 6.8% growth in the previous month.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, Nomura analysts said: “Taiwan’s export growth is likely to remain solid, as AI-driven strength continues to dominate (e.g., new AI GPU/ASIC platform ramp-up as highlighted by our tech analysts), and should more than offset the impact of the oil price shock. While there has been market chatter about helium supply constraints, we view this as manageable, given the import diversification measures already undertaken, the capacity for advanced fabs to recycle 80-90% of helium usage and several months of inventory buffers, which should help cushion short-term disruptions.”

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