Economic growth accelerates in the fourth quarter of 2025

GDP clocks fastest expansion in over a year: The second estimate downwardly revised Ukraine's GDP for Q4 2025, with growth now seen at 2.8% on a year-on-year basis, following a 2.4% expansion in the prior quarter. Nonetheless, Q4's reading was the strongest since Q2 2024. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP grew 0.7% in Q4, following a 0.8% expansion in the prior quarter. Full-year GDP growth hit a three-year low of 1.7% in 2025 as a whole (2024: +3.5%)—the weakest since 2022’s sharp war-related contraction.

Sharp acceleration in private spending lifts GDP growth: Relative to the previous period's data, readings in Q4 improved for private consumption (+11.1% in annual terms vs +6.4% in Q3), exports of goods and services (-1.3% vs -15.5% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+11.6% vs +9.5% in Q3). In contrast, readings worsened for government consumption (+0.3% vs +13.8% in Q3) and fixed investment (+7.6% vs +9.1% in Q3).

GDP to accelerate through 2028 amid recovery in net trade: Our Consensus is for annual GDP growth to accelerate from 2025’s three-year low through 2028. This year, an uptick in growth should be propelled by a rebound in exports plus weaker import growth, while domestic demand is also seen expanding, though at a slower pace than last year, supported by reconstruction efforts, international financing, investment in arms production and easing inflation and interest rates. A prolonged U.S.-Iran war could keep Washington’s focus on the Middle East for longer, delaying peace talks with Russia and pushing energy prices even higher. Intensifying Russian attacks on the country’s power grid pose an additional downside risk.

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