East Asia Economic Outlook
East Asia’s GDP growth is projected to beat the world average in 2026, propelled by soaring AI-related electronics demand, solid tourism and healthy equity markets. That said, China’s property downturn will still be a headwind. Downside risks include rising China-Taiwan tensions and a prolonged Iran war, while upside risks include stronger Chinese policy support.
East Asia Inflation
Since February, inflation has jumped in Mongolia, South Korea and Taiwan due to the Iran energy shock. That said, price growth in China and Hong Kong has remained mostly steady. Over this year as a whole, our panel forecasts inflation to average between 1.0–3.0% in all countries bar Mongolia, where it will be notably higher.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 | 4,447 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 | 1,361 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 14,215 | 14,205 | 14,228 | 14,630 | 15,263 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.45 | 3.09 | 2.95 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 | 5,808 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67 | 72 | 77 | 83 | 90 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 | 5,210 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |