East Asia Economic Outlook
This year, East Asia’s economy will continue to grow well above the global norm. Key drivers will be the global AI boom boosting electronics demand, strong tourism arrivals and interest rate cuts in some countries. However, a weak Chinese property sector will be a drag. China-Taiwan tensions are a downside risk, and further Chinese stimulus measures an upside risk.
East Asia Inflation
East Asian inflation has been low by global standards so far this year, reflecting the region’s vast manufacturing capacity plus subdued domestic demand in China. While our panelists have revised up their 2026 forecasts over the last month due to costlier energy imports, inflation will remain contained in all countries except Mongolia.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 | 4,442 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 | 1,366 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 14,214 | 14,203 | 14,228 | 14,626 | 15,256 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 | 5,808 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67 | 72 | 77 | 83 | 90 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 | 5,210 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 | 2.94 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 |