East Asia Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for slower GDP growth in 2026 as export frontloading is exhausted. That said, risks appear to be to the upside in light of the ongoing AI boom; a leading semiconductor organization recently estimated world chip sales could rise 26% next year, faster than 2025’s pace. U.S. semiconductor tariffs are a key downside risk.
East Asia Inflation
Price pressures across East Asia are subdued, with China seeing outright year-on-year price declines through much of 2025 as a result of oversupply in factories and soft household spending. The region is set to post the world’s lowest average inflation in 2026, though Mongolia will face markedly higher readings than the rest of East Asia.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,229 | 14,633 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64 | 65 | 70 | 76 | 81 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 586 | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |