East Asia Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for the regional economy to slow slightly in 2026. This is chiefly due to softer export growth, after 2025’s unsustainably fast export expansion driven by the AI boom and sales frontloading to the U.S. However, interest rate cuts should support domestic demand. U.S. semiconductor tariffs and China-Taiwan conflict are key downside risks.
East Asia Inflation
East Asia’s average inflation last year was the lowest among all world regions, due largely to weak producer price pressures in China amid vast goods output and mild consumer spending. In 2026, our Consensus is for price pressures to pick up slightly but stay subdued. Mongolia will be the exception, with high inflation driven by robust credit and wage growth.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,229 | 14,626 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 586 | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64 | 65 | 70 | 76 | 81 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |