East Asia Economic Outlook
GDP growth is likely to slip in 2026 vs 2025. Last year’s rapid export growth—the product of the AI boom and sales frontloading to the U.S.—is unlikely to be sustained in 2026. That said, looser monetary policy will aid domestic demand. U.S. semiconductor tariffs and China-Taiwan conflict are downside risks, while further Chinese stimulus measures are an upside risk.
East Asia Inflation
East Asia recorded the world’s lowest average regional inflation last year, mainly reflecting muted producer price dynamics in China amid abundant goods supply and soft consumer demand. In 2026, our Consensus expects inflation to edge higher but remain contained. Mongolia will stand out, with elevated price growth fueled by strong credit expansion and rising wages.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,229 | 14,627 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 586 | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.6 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64 | 65 | 70 | 76 | 81 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |