South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
SEE GDP growth is seen slowing in 2025 relative to 2024. Weaker expansions in Serbia, Turkey and euro area members—mainly on cooling private spending—will lead the deceleration. That said, investment activity should gain some traction, buoyed by lower interest rates. Global trade policies and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are key factors to track.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation declined for the 14th successive month in July as disinflation in heavyweight Turkey remained on track. SEE inflation is projected to average its lowest since 2021 this year, tamed by a high base effect, past interest rate hikes and lower oil prices. Commodity price spikes and unexpected currency depreciations are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2023 to 2020.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 2.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.6 | 13.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -4.1 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 66.7 | 65.1 | 55.1 | 50.9 | 46.4 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.6 | 11.4 | 43.5 | 32.7 | 34.6 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.51 | 7.88 | 6.95 | 26.88 | 30.46 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -0.4 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 |