South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
The regional economy is projected to grow about as quickly in 2026 as in 2025, and thus slower than the past-decade average. Lower interest rates, strong tourism activity, soft energy prices and an economic pick-up in Germany—a key trading partner—will support the economy, though U.S. tariffs will drag. Further U.S. tariff hikes are a downside risk.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
Inflation in Turkey has been by far the highest in the region so far this year at over 30%, followed by Romania. Inflation elsewhere in South-Eastern Europe has been far lower, generally in the 1–5% range. This three-speed dynamic of inflation—sky-high in Turkey, moderately elevated in Romania and contained elsewhere—should persist in 2026.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.52 | 7.89 | 6.95 | 26.88 | 30.43 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 2.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.6 | 11.4 | 43.5 | 32.7 | 34.5 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.6 | 13.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.8 | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 66.2 | 64.4 | 54.5 | 50.4 | 45.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -0.3 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 |