Brazil: Industrial business sentiment hits 10-month high in March
Latest reading: The seasonally adjusted industrial business confidence index published by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) inched up for a fourth month running in March, coming in at 96.8, up slightly from February’s 96.7; March’s print was the highest since May 2025. As a result, the reading moved closer to, but remained below, the 100-point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic sentiment. Firms’ sentiment reflected a slight improvement in domestic demand.
In March, industrial businesses grew less pessimistic about expectations for the coming months (+96.4 vs +96.0 in February). However, firms grew more pessimistic about the current situation (+97.2 vs +97.4 in February).
Outlook: Industrial business sentiment averaged the highest in a year in Q1 2026, boding better for industrial investment in the quarter; that said, sentiment was still pessimistic on average in Q1. Going forward, the Central Bank’s recently started loosening cycle should support sentiment, although heightened global uncertainty, higher oil prices and potential supply-chain disruptions could halt the index’s upward trajectory.