Canada: Economic growth rises in February
GDP reading: GDP rose 0.2% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in February, following a 0.1% increase in the prior month.
Drivers: Expansions in manufacturing, mining, transport and wholesale trade outweighed a contraction in the public sector.
Prediction for March suggests solid Q1 outturn: Preliminary data suggest that real GDP was broadly flat in March. Gains in wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing were counterbalanced by declines in retail trade and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.
Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, TD Economics’ Marc Ercolao said:
“Canada’s economy looks to be off to a solid start in 2026 after GDP contracted in Q4-2025. With February’s print and a flash estimate for March, Q1-2026 growth is tracking around 1.7%, broadly consistent with the Bank of Canada’s recently updated economic projections and our own forecast.”