Kazakhstan: National Bank of Kazakhstan holds rates in March
Rates at record high for a third straight meeting: At its meeting on 6 March, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) held its base rate at a record high of 18.00% for a third consecutive meeting.
NBK holds fire as inflation remains in double-digits despite easing: The Bank opted not to cut rates once again, as consumer price growth and inflation expectations remained elevated in double-digits through February despite slowing. Meanwhile, a rate hike was ruled out as price pressures are easing, and disinflationary factors, including the appreciation of the tenge and slower consumer credit growth, are strengthening.
NBK will consider rate cuts from H2 2026: The Bank indicated that the room for monetary policy easing is yet to form and that its cautious stance reflects uncertainty stemming from the impact of changes to the tax system and the deregulation of utility tariffs and fuel prices. The NBK said that it will consider policy rate cuts from H2 2026. Accordingly, most of our panelists expect the NBK to begin rate cuts in Q3 2026, with forecasts ranging from 50 to 475 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, while a minority sees rates on hold. The Bank will reconvene on 24 April.