Mexico: Economic activity disappoints in February
Latest reading: Economic activity increased 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in February, following a 0.7% fall in the previous month but well below expectations.
Relative to the prior month’s figures, readings in February improved for the services sector (-0.1% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms vs -0.6% in January), the industrial sector (+0.4% vs -1.1% in January) and the primary sector (-0.3% vs -3.7% in January).
On a year-on-year basis, economic activity declined 0.3% in February, stable from the prior month’s reading and contrasting market expectations for expansion.
Panelist insight: On the reading and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“The data reinforce the message that the economy started the year on a weak footing, despite a favorable base effect. With activity down 0.3% YoY in January–February and a 0.37% carryover into 2026, our 1.5% YoY GDP forecast for 2026 now carries a downside bias. Considering today’s data, we now expect a 0.7% QoQ contraction in 1Q26 (-0.35% QoQ previously). Still, we see scope for improvement in the second half of the year, supported by firmer domestic demand and a modest boost from World Cuprelated activity.”