Nigeria: Nigerian oil production inches up in March
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 99.41 per barrel in March, up 43.2% from February. On 31 March, the commodity traded at USD 118.35 per barrel, up 63.1% from 27 February.
Turning to production, Nigerian oil output ticked up to 1.46 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March from February’s 1.44 mbpd; despite the uptick, output fell short of Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd for the fifth month running.
Outlook: Our Consensus is for Nigerian oil output to be the second-highest in six years in 2026. That said, our panelists expect Nigerian output to undershoot Nigeria’s 1.5 mbpd quota.
Looking further ahead, our Consensus is for output to gradually rise through 2028. Instability in the oil-producing Niger Delta region remains the main downside risk, while the conflict in the Middle East is key to monitor.
Panelist insight: Regarding the oil production outlook, analysts at the EIU noted:
“The government is aiming to raise crude oil processing capacity to 2.4m b/d by 2027, which we regard as unfeasible. […] Offshore investments (notably the Bonga North and Preowei field projects) are in progress, but major output gains are likely to come beyond our forecast period. We expect output to average 1.6m b/d in 2028-30.”