Poland: Economic growth eases in the first quarter of 2026
GDP reading: Poland’s GDP grew 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in Q1, following 4.1% growth in the prior quarter. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, economic output grew 0.6% in Q1, following a 1.0% expansion in the previous quarter.
Drivers: Relative to the prior quarter’s data, figures in Q1 softened for private consumption (+3.3% in annual terms vs +4.3% in Q4), government consumption (+6.0% vs +7.7% in Q4), fixed investment (+2.4% vs +6.6% in Q4), exports of goods and services (+5.6% vs +7.6% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+6.1% vs +8.8% in Q4).
Panelist insight: Erste Bank analysts commented:
“We have recently adjusted our 2026 GDP growth forecast from 3.8% to 3.6%, taking into account slower start of the year and the impact of uncertainty related to Iran war. An expected acceleration of investment growth in the final stage of RRF absorption should be one of the most important factors behind stronger GDP growth in the remainder of the year, especially if helped by some precautionary inventory buildup.”