Russia: Inflation slows more than expected in April
Latest reading: Consumer prices increased 5.6% on a year-on-year basis in April, following a 5.9% increase in the prior month. The figure was 0.2 percentage points lower than the market had expected, driven by the rapid appreciation of the ruble against the U.S. dollar amid soaring energy prices. Still, inflation remained well above the Central Bank’s 4.0% target.
Relative to the prior month’s data, there were milder price pressures for food and beverages (+4.0% on a year-on-year basis vs +5.0% in March) and services (+9.9% vs +10.0% in March). In contrast, price pressures were higher for non-food goods in April (+3.9% vs +3.5% in March).
Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 5.0% in annual terms in April, stable from the prior month’s reading.
Finally, consumer prices were up 0.14% in April on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.60% increase in the prior month.
Panelist insight: Regarding the drivers behind their inflation outlook, EIU analysts commented:
“We forecast that inflation will average 5.7% in 2026, down from 8.7% in 2025, and will end the year around 5.8%. The rouble has strengthened as oil prices have increased in recent weeks, easing short-term inflationary pressures, but we expect a depreciating trend to reassert itself as hydrocarbons prices fall once disruption in the Middle East begins to ease.”