Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian oil output falls in March
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 99.41 per barrel in March, up 43.2% from February. On 31 March, the commodity traded at USD 118.35 per barrel, up 63.1% from 27 February.
Turning to production, Saudi oil output was 7.80 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March, decreasing 13.0% year on year (February: 10.11 mbpd; up 12.9% yoy). This marked the sharpest year-on-year contraction in nearly two years. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia cut production by over 2 million barrels per day, primarily by shutting down the Safaniya and Zuluf offshore fields.
Outlook: The outlook for Saudi Arabia’s oil production in 2026 has dimmed during the past months due to the Iran war. Still, the country’s oil sector remains better insulated from the conflict than most other Gulf states. By rerouting exports to the port of Yanbu, the Kingdom has partially offset losses from the Hormuz blockade.
Panelist insight: According to analysts from EIU:
“Once the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, Saudi Arabia will be eager to regain its previous production levels as soon as possible, leading to a potential marked recovery in output in the second half of 2026. Nonetheless, our tentative forecast is that average oil production will decline this year before rising to 10.2m b/d in 2027. Depending on market conditions, the rise in output next year could be even higher, helped by the coming on stream of more than 1m b/d of new capacity from the Manifa and Berri fields.”