Singapore: Merchandise trade surplus narrows in February
Latest reading: In February, the trade balance was USD +3.6 billion, following a USD +9.8 billion reading in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to +67.8 USD billion.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) increased 4.0% in year-on-year terms in February, down from a 9.2% expansion in the previous month. February’s reading was below market expectations.
The year-on-year slowdown was driven by a sharper contraction in non-electronic NODX. In contrast, exports of integrated circuits and disk-media products surged, suggesting underlying tech demand remains resilient.
On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, NODX strengthened 3.9% in February, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.6% increase in the prior month.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Nomura’s Euben Paracuelles and Yiru Chen said:
“We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 3.7%, which is in the upper half of the latest official forecast range of 2.0-4.0% and above the consensus forecast of 3.3%. We expect underlying NODX momentum to hold up in coming months, helped by the sustained global tech uptrend and broadening AI-related demand, which in turn should continue to boost manufacturing output. In addition, transshipment activity, partly due to the still-low US effective tariff rate despite the reimposition of the 15% global tariff will likely continue to cause positive spillovers to trade-related services.”