Latest bank decision: At its late April meeting, the Central Bank kept the target range for the federal funds rate...
Policy Interest Rate in Russia
Russia's central bank policy rates over the last decade saw significant fluctuations, influenced by economic sanctions, oil price volatility, and inflationary pressures. In the run-up to and during the COVID-19 pandemic, rates were reduced to support the economy. By 2024, rates were increased to an all-time high in response to war-related labour shortages, currency weakness and government stimulus fanning inflation.
The policy interest rate ended 2024 at 21.00%, compared to the end-2023 value of 16.00% and the figure a decade earlier of 17.00%. It averaged 10.64% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Russia Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Russia from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Russia Interest Rate Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key Rate (%, eop) | 8.50 | 7.50 | 16.00 | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 8.42 | 10.36 | 12.30 | 15.12 | 14.47 |
Bank of Russia cuts key rate in March
CBR cuts rates again; no surprise this time: At its meeting on 20 March, the Bank of Russia (CBR) made a seventh consecutive cut, lowering the key rate by 50 basis points to 15.00%. The decision was largely anticipated by markets after the prior same-size cut made in January came as a surprise. Accordingly, the key rate hit its lowest level since late 2023 and has been lowered by a total of 600 basis points since June 2025’s all-time high.
Inflation falls in February, paving the way for a rate cut: The cut was motivated by a fall in inflation in February following a temporary acceleration in price growth in January due to a 2026 VAT hike. Moreover, a short-term economic activity indicator showed that the economy is approaching a balanced growth path, with domestic demand cooling and therefore easing inflationary pressures.
CBR signals further easing hinges on future inflation and economic activity: The Bank of Russia indicated that it will assess the need for further key rate cuts in its upcoming meetings, based on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the economy’s progress toward a more balanced growth path, as well as developments in inflation expectations and global energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. Our panelists expect further rate cuts this year, with forecasts ranging from 100 to 600 basis points of total reductions; our Consensus is for around 300 basis points of further reductions by year-end. The Bank will reconvene on 24 April.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 19 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Russian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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