NBS leaves rates unchanged in July

Central Bank remains on hold: At its meeting on 10 July, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, where it has stood since September 2024. Markets were roughly split between a hold and a 25 basis points cut for the second consecutive meeting.

Food inflation and global economic uncertainty prompt hold: The Bank highlighted that food inflation has increased in recent months due to high global prices for cocoa and coffee, last year's drought, and reduced supply of fruit and vegetables. Additionally, the NBS noted that this year’s agricultural season could disappoint again due to high temperatures. Regarding the external landscape, the Bank reiterated that uncertainty regarding global trade policies remains high, and added that the recent flare-up in conflict in the Middle East introduced additional risks to energy prices. Against this volatile backdrop, the NBS deemed it prudent to stand pat.

NBS to cut rates ahead: The Central Bank provided no explicit forward guidance on the future direction of interest rates. Nonetheless, all our panelists expect the Bank to reduce rates by end-2025 as inflation moderates. Most of our panelists expect a total reduction of 50 basis points by year-end from current levels. The next meeting is scheduled for 7 August.

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