Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 7 May, the Central Bank decided to cut the target for the overnight...
SELIC Rate in Brazil
Brazil's central bank policy rates fluctuated significantly over the last decade, mirroring the country's economic challenges. Rates were initially high due to inflation concerns but were cut to historic lows during the pandemic to stimulate growth. Post-2020, rates were again increased in response to rising inflation and economic recovery needs, with the Central Bank beginning another easing cycle midway through 2023 as concerns over prices dimmed. Conditions changed towards end-2024, with the Bank once more jacking up rates to ward off stubborn price pressures.
The selic rate ended 2024 at 12.25%, compared to the end-2023 value of 11.75% and the figure a decade earlier of 11.75%. It averaged 9.70% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Brazil Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Brazil from 2014 to 2025.
Source: Macrobond.
Brazil Interest Rate Data
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELIC Rate (%, eop) | 9.25 | 13.75 | 11.75 | 12.25 | 15.00 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 10.83 | 12.66 | 10.36 | 15.21 | 13.74 |
Central Bank cuts rates again in April
BCB reduces rates cautiously: At its meeting on 28–29 April, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) reduced its SELIC rate by 25 basis points to 14.50%. The cut, which had been priced in by markets, was a unanimous decision and marked the second consecutive 25 basis point reduction since the BCB initiated its current loosening cycle last month.
Monetary policy remains restrictive: The Bank assessed a cut was still called for, as the cooling of GDP growth indicated the transmission of prolonged elevated rates to the real economy. Moreover, monetary policy remains restrictive despite recent cuts. The renewed rate reduction came despite the inflation outlook deteriorating: The BCB raised its 2026 headline inflation forecast to 4.6% from 3.9% at its prior meeting in March, while the forecast for Q4 2027—the Bank’s current relevant horizon—stood at 3.5%, both above the 3.0% midpoint of the Central Bank’s 1.5–4.5% tolerance range.
Consensus turns more hawkish: The BCB refrained from providing explicit forward guidance regarding future interest rate changes, but emphasized that both current and expected inflation are unanchored and trending further above the 3.0% target and that uncertainty around these projections is elevated. Currently, all of our panelists still see room for further policy easing this year, but our Consensus has turned more hawkish over the last month; if the economy performs better than anticipated and the war in the Middle East is prolonged, additional rate cuts could be taken off the table. The Bank will reconvene on 16–17 June.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 37 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Brazilian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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