Bulgaria Government Consumption yo

Economic growth slows in the second quarter of 2026

GDP reading: Bulgaria's GDP increased 2.8% in working-day and seasonally adjusted year-on-year terms in Q2, following a 3.0% expansion in the previous quarter. Q2's reading was the weakest since Q1 2024 but was twice as fast as the EU average. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy grew 0.7% in Q2, unchanged from the previous quarter's reading.

Domestic demand loses steam: Compared with the previous quarter's data, figures in Q2 worsened for private consumption (+8.9% in seasonally adjusted year-on-year terms vs +9.3% in Q1), government consumption (+2.1% vs +2.9% in Q1) and fixed investment (+8.4% vs +8.7% in Q1). In contrast, readings picked up for exports of goods and services (+0.2% vs -7.1% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+8.5% vs +8.2% in Q1).

Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented: “Private consumption growth is projected to slow in the rest of 2026 as wage growth moderates—although it will continue to be the primary driver of economic growth, and will get some support from an increase in pensions from July 2026. Households will feel the pinch of high inflation, with consumer confidence declining amid elevated oil prices stemming from the war in Iran. On the upside, Bulgaria's full entry into the Schengen area in January 2025 and the adoption of the euro in January 2026 are favourable for foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade, given the importance of road freight for Bulgaria's trade with the EU.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Bulgarian government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 10 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Bulgarian government consumption.

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