Merchandise trade surplus widens in April

Latest reading: In April, the trade balance was USD +84.8 billion, following a USD +51.1 billion reading in the prior month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +1167.3 billion. Merchandise exports were up 14.1% in annual terms in April, following 2.5% growth in the prior month and above market expectations. Merchandise imports rose 25.3% in annual terms in April, coming on the back of 27.8% growth in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Digging into the data, Nomura analysts said: “Robust semiconductor trade continued to be the dominant driver of highly elevated export and import growth in April, with the divergence between value and volume growth widening further, as chip price increases continued to overwhelm quantity growth. We estimated chips contributed 4.9pp to headline export growth. Together with automatic data processing equipment, which is also closely linked the current global AI boom and contributed an additional 2.4pp to April’s export growth, AI-related exports accounted for around half of total export growth in April.”

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