Merchandise trade surplus remains elevated in July

Latest reading: In July, the trade balance was USD +112.5 billion, below the USD +125.6 billion figure in the previous month but still one of the strongest surpluses on record. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +1188.0 billion. Merchandise exports increased 23.9% in year-on-year terms in July, following 27.0% growth in the previous month and beating market expectations. The rise was linked to strong demand for and prices of tech exports, elevated electric vehicles shipments plus some frontloading of sales to the U.S. ahead of a slight increase in U.S. tariffs. Merchandise imports rose 27.5% in annual terms in July, coming on the back of a 36.0% increase in the previous month.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, EIU anaysts said: “Exports will be resilient in 2026, owing to China's highly competitive manufacturing sector. China has found new sources of demand. One is the global AI investment boom, which is pushing up the country's exports of integrated circuits, circuit boards and transformers. Global demand for green transition goods, of which China is a dominant producer, has surged during the Iran war; relevant exports will slow after the de-escalation brings down oil prices, but are likely to remain a major contributor to the external sector. The high double-digit growth in automotive exports will continue, with Chinese firms gaining global market share, displacing carmakers from other countries.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Chinese merchandise imports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 11 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable merchandise imports forecast available for Chinese merchandise imports.

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