Economic growth eases in the fourth quarter of 2025

GDP reading: Costa Rica's GDP grew 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in Q4, following 5.4% growth in the previous quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 0.8% in Q4, stable from the prior quarter's reading. Full-year GDP growth in 2025 rose to 4.6%, up from 4.1% in 2024.

Drivers: Compared with the prior period's data, readings in Q4 softened for government consumption (+2.5% in annual terms vs +2.7% in Q3), exports of goods and services (+9.0% vs +11.2% in Q3) and imports of goods and services (+3.5% vs +8.5% in Q3). In contrast, readings picked up for private consumption (+4.7% vs +4.2% in Q3) and fixed investment (+4.9% vs +0.4% in Q3).

GDP outlook: This year, GDP growth is expected to hit its lowest rate since 2020. Private consumption should lose steam due to the smallest minimum wage increase under the current administration this year, higher unemployment rates, and a recent persistent fall in consumer prices leading households to delay purchases. Export growth should also moderate after being boosted last year by U.S.-tariff-related frontloading; another blow to exports will be dealt by the slimming-down of operations by multinational companies Qorvo, Intel and Pfizer. Finally, a historically strong colón, rising insecurity hurting tourism and soaring global energy prices will negatively affect net trade. Still, the economy should grow broadly in line with the pre-pandemic decade average in 2026. Public spending and fixed investment will likely pick up. This is despite the new president’s promise to continue fiscal consolidation; tailwinds include lower interest rates, higher security expenses—2025 was the third-deadliest year in history for Costa Rica—and planned infrastructure projects including the San José–San Ramón highway and an electric train project.

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