Economy stagnates in Q1 2026

GDP reading: France's GDP was stable in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1, following 0.2% growth in the prior quarter and undershooting market expectations. Q1's reading was the weakest since Q4 2024. Moreover, the underlying economy was even weaker than the headline data suggests. Domestic demand’s contribution to GDP growth was zero and net exports’ contribution was negative; only a large inventory build-up avoided an economic contraction.

Broad-based slowdown seen: Relative to the previous quarter's data, readings in Q1 worsened for private consumption (-0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis vs +0.4% in Q4), fixed investment (-0.4% vs +0.3% in Q4), exports of goods and services (-3.8% vs +0.8% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (-1.7% vs -0.8% in Q4). Finally, the variation in government consumption was the same as in the prior quarter (+0.4% in Q1 and Q4). In annual terms, economic output expanded 1.1% in Q1, following 1.3% growth in the prior quarter.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects French GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 57 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for French GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our French GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of French GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.