Inflation unexpectedly picks up in March

Latest reading: Consumer prices were up 15.4% in annual terms in March, following a 15.1% increase in the prior month. March’s acceleration took markets by surprise as another slowdown had been expected—the uptick was the result of the outbreak of the war in the Middle East in late February, which has since stoked fuel prices. Despite the rise, inflation remained within the Central Bank’s 14.5–18.5% tolerance band for 2026. Relative to the previous month's data, there were higher price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+14.1% in annual terms vs +11.0% in February) and transport (+16.9% vs +14.7% in February). In contrast, there were reduced price pressures for clothing and footwear (+8.5% vs +16.1% in February) and housing and utilities (+10.2% vs +18.8% in February). Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 15.7% in annual terms in March, following a 15.6% increase in the prior month. Finally, consumer prices increased 4.18% in March on a month-on-month basis, following a 2.01% rise in the prior month.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Nigerian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 19 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Nigerian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Nigerian inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Nigerian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.