Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in February

The NBS stands pat again: At its meeting on 12 February, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to keep the key policy rate at 5.75%, as has been the case since September 2024. The decision was widely in line with market expectations.

Contained inflation drives hold: The NBS decision was mainly guided by inflation, which stood at 2.8% in December—slightly below the midpoint of the 1.5–4.5% target range—and which is expected to remain there even after caps on wholesale and retail price margins expire in March 2026. Regarding the economy, the Bank said it expects GDP growth to strengthen in 2026–2027, reducing the need to cut interest rates; the negative impact on GDP growth from recent U.S. sanctions on Serbia’s sole oil refinery likely peaked in Q4 last year. According to the Bank, in 2026–2027, GDP growth will be supported by rising private consumption and fixed investment, as well as infrastructure projects linked to Expo 2027 in Belgrade.

Rate cuts forecast ahead: The majority of our panelists expect rate cuts of 50–125 basis points from current levels by the end of 2026, while the remainder see rates on hold. Upside risks to inflation are expected to ease once the oil refinery’s planned sale to the Hungarian firm MOL is approved and U.S. sanctions are lifted. At the same time, recent concerns raised by the EU over new judicial reforms could put at risk EUR 1.6 billion in loans and grants to Serbia, which could curb economic growth and result in larger-than-expected rate cuts. The NBS will reconvene on 12 March.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Serbian interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.