Thailand Inflation yo

Inflation accelerates in August from July

Latest reading: Consumer prices increased 2.5% on a year-on-year basis in August, following a 1.9% increase in the previous month. The latest reading exceeded market expectations of a softer uptick in price pressures. Relative to the prior month's figures, there were higher price pressures for food and beverages (+3.0% on a year-on-year basis vs +2.0% in July), housing and utilities (+0.2% vs +0.1% in July), transportation and communication (+5.7% vs +4.8% in July) and recreation and education (+1.1% vs +1.0% in July). Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 1.4% in annual terms in August, following a 1.3% rise in the prior month. Finally, consumer prices increased 0.56% in August in month-on-month terms, following a 0.73% decline in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Nomura analysts said: “We raise our headline CPI inflation forecast for 2026 to 1.8% from 1.5%, on a higher global crude oil price assumption, though this remains below [the BOT's 2.8% projection]. We also raise our core CPI inflation forecast to 1.1% from 0.7%, on the pass-through of higher meat prices to prepared food, while broader price pressures remain limited. Increases in Brent crude oil prices have resumed, and retail fuel prices should stay above year-earlier levels for the rest of 2026, though this should be partly offset by government subsidies through the Oil Fuel Fund. Pork and chicken prices should also remain elevated relative to normal seasonal patterns, due to severe supply disruptions. Partly offsetting this, the electricity tariff for September-December has been cut to THB3.86/unit from THB3.95.”

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