National Bank of Ukraine maintains policy rate in June

NBU stands pat for a third straight meeting: At its meeting on 18 June, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 15.00%, in line with market expectations. This marked a third consecutive hold following a 50 basis point cut in January.

Higher-than-expected inflation prompts caution: NBU opted not to cut rates as both core and headline inflation were higher than the NBU had expected in May, reflecting stronger second-round effects from the Iran energy price spike in March–April. Moreover, inflation should stay close to its current levels in the coming months—well above the NBU’s 5.0% target—and accelerate toward year-end, according to the Bank. However, the NBU did not hike rates due to three factors: Energy prices have started to decline amid the U.S.-Iran peace deal; delayed external funding finally went through in June; and demand for hryvnia assets remains stable. All these factors bode well for the currency and subsequently inflation.

Guidance turns more hawkish: The NBU’s guidance has become more hawkish, with the Bank stating that it stands ready to hike the key rate should inflationary pressures intensify. Still, the vast majority of our panelists expect the Bank to hold fire through the rest of 2026. The NBU will reconvene on 30 July.

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