Argentina: Economic activity falls in February
Latest reading: Economic activity fell 2.1% in annual terms in February, following a 1.7% rise in the prior month. February’s reading was the weakest since September 2024.
Relative to the previous month’s data, readings in February worsened for agriculture (+8.4% in annual terms vs +25.0% in January), manufacturing (-8.7% vs -2.7% in January), construction (-0.6% vs +0.3% in January) and transport and communications (-0.3% vs +2.7% in January). In contrast, the reading for hotels and restaurants improved in February (+1.0% vs -2.3% in January).
On a month-on-month basis, economic activity fell 2.6% in February, following a 0.4% increase in the previous month.
Panelist insight: Commenting on recent economic activity, Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella said:
“Economic activity ended 2025 and started 2026 (January) on a strong note driven by the strong performance of the agricultural sector after a historic wheat harvest, as well as firmer activity in mining and financial intermediation. On a year-on-year comparison these sectors, together with fishing, continued to perform well in February. Activity in other sectors, such as manufacturing, retail, tourism (hotels and restaurants), and construction, however, has been weak. We continue to see risks to our below-consensus 2.7% growth forecast for 2026 as balanced.”
On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.5%, supported by a constructive investment outlook, lower interest rates, and a record harvest. However, the recent reacceleration of inflation poses risks to the real wage recovery, reinforcing a cautious view on the pace and timing of a consumption rebound.”