Peru: Economic activity slows in January
Latest reading: Economic activity was up 3.5% in annual terms in January, following a 3.8% rise in the prior month.
Relative to the previous month’s figures, readings in January softened for commerce (+4.3% in annual terms vs +4.9% in December) and manufacturing (-1.4% vs +4.6% in December). In contrast, readings picked up for agriculture (+4.0% vs +2.5% in December), construction (+15.6% vs +12.0% in December) and mining and hydrocarbons (+3.1% vs -2.2% in December).
On a month-on-month basis, economic activity increased 0.6% in January, stable from the previous month’s reading.
Panelist insight: On the outlook for the rest of Q1, BBVA’s Yalina Crispin and Hugo Vega de la Cruz said:
“The balance of the activity indicators available for February 2026 suggests that the year-on-year growth rate was likely somewhat lower than that observed in January. Taking into account the interruption of natural gas supply for approximately two weeks in March, we estimate that this event reduced monthly growth by around two percentage points. The impact was likely concentrated in hydrocarbon production, as well as in certain segments of manufacturing and transportation. In this context, we estimate that GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 would be around 2.5%.”