Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabian oil output surges again in February
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 69.41 per barrel in February, up 7.5% from January. On 27 February, the commodity traded at USD 72.55 per barrel, up 2.6% from 30 January.
Turning to production, Saudi oil output was 10.11 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February, up 12.9% year on year (January: 10.09 mbpd; up 12.8% yoy). This marked the 10th consecutive year-on-year increase following a long slump, and was the sharpest in just over three years. The rise was driven by looser OPEC+ output restrictions.
Outlook: The outlook for Saudi Arabia’s oil production in 2026 has dimmed in recent weeks in light of the Iran war, with the country’s output down about a quarter from pre-conflict levels. Still, the country’s oil sector remains better insulated from the conflict that other Gulf states, having already diverted about half of its crude shipments via pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
For now, our Consensus Forecast remains for Saudi crude production to rise again in 2026 as OPEC+ hikes output once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. However, an extended closure could lead the country’s production to fall.