Turkey: Inflation rises in April
Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 32.4% on a year-on-year basis in April, following a 30.9% increase in the prior month.
Relative to the previous month’s data, there were higher price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+34.5% on a year-on-year basis vs +32.4% in March), transport (+35.1% vs +34.4% in March), housing and utilities (+46.6% vs +42.1% in March) and clothing and footwear (+9.7% vs +7.2% in March). In contrast, price pressures reduced for restaurants and hotels in April (+31.5% vs +31.7% in March).
Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 29.8% on a year-on-year basis in April, following a 29.7% increase in the previous month.
Finally, consumer prices were up 4.18% in April on a month-on-month basis, following a 1.94% rise in the prior month.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, EIU analysts said:
“We expect inflation to return to a modest downward trend towards the second half of 2026 under the influence of slightly cooling domestic demand, aligned with still-positive real rates and [Central Bank] intervention in the foreign-exchange market in 2026, barely rising incomes (in real terms), and low confidence in the economy. Risks to our forecast include a re-escalation of the Iran war; a potential poor harvest, which could fuel inflation via higher food prices; an excessive loosening of monetary policy ahead of the next election; and any stronger than expected acceleration in the nominal depreciation of the lira (triggering higher prices for imported items).”