Inflation accelerates in March from February

Latest reading: Harmonized consumer prices increased 3.4% in annual terms in March, following a 2.5% increase in the previous month, mainly driven by a surge in energy prices related to the U.S.-Iran conflict. March's reading was the strongest since June 2024. Relative to the previous month's data, there were higher price pressures for transportation (+6.0% on a year-on-year basis vs +0.6% in February), housing and utilities (+3.7% vs +1.9% in February) and recreation (+3.7% vs +2.9% in February). In contrast, there were reduced price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+2.7% vs +3.2% in February) and restaurants and hotels (+4.8% vs +4.9% in February). Meanwhile, consumer prices increased 3.4% in March, following a 2.3% increase in the previous month. Finally, harmonized consumer prices were up 1.66% in March in month-on-month terms, following a 0.43% increase in the prior month.

Panelist insight: BBVA Research’s Camilo A. Ulloa commented: “Real-time estimates from BBVA Research suggest a further increase in headline inflation in April […]. This rise is mainly attributable to a renewed increase in energy prices, despite the containment measures implemented by the Government of Spain. By contrast, core inflation is expected to moderate slightly […] due to a base effect caused by the shift in the timing of Easter.”

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